Housing sector


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Ongoing: I currently undertake work on house price index construction for Armenia, under a KfW/German FinMin-sponsored housing finance project. We might produce a short paper eventually.

For monthly results of the EPX house price index of Europace, Germany's large business-to-business origination platform run by Hypoport AG, for which I did the econometric groundwork (see below) and continue to do some limited surveillance, see here. Europace intermediates ca 20% of the German retail mortgage market.

August 2014: Presentation on the occasion of a whole day workshop for the delegation of the National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China here in Berlin, on the EPX house price index and related questions of house price index construction. 

December 2012: Presentation given at the Chambre de Notaires de Paris on the german housing market with some reference to the French market. En francais.

November 2012: EBRD asked me to contribute to their 2012 Transition Report. Box 3.6 page 56-57. My key message is that diverging mortgage banking standards and availabilities of rental housing for young and low-income households create hard to overcome obstacle for Banking Union in Europe in the sense of full mutualization. One key free rider problem would be the invitation to simply keep selling variable-rate loans backed by ECB funding to keep pressing these groups into 'private' housing markets. This ignores the imperative to build or maintain social housing stock in a world with increasing income disparities and rising house price to income ratios in the centers of migration.

February 2010: Continuation of German house price index development work, this time focus on regional house price analysis and options to create a bottom-up national hedonic house price index. Download

2008 Study on the Feasibility of a German hedonic house price index with europace (Hypoport) data (german), for Bundesinstitut Bau-, Stadt- und Raumforschung BBSR. Under this work program I created the HPX (Hypoport Preisindex), which in 2012 was relabelled into EPX (Europace Preisindex). For monthly results of epx click here

June 2007 Presentation on rental housing in Emerging Markets, given at the Wharton School, Philadelphia

2007 Member of a joint USAID-World Bank team developing a Housing Policy Roadmap for Egypt, here: Greater Cairo Rent Survey analyzing the impact of rent control (disaggregate household survey analysis).

2006 Study on Rental Choice and Housing Policy Realignment in Transition covering Russia, Romania, Poland, Lithuania, Serbia, Armenia, with Jan Brzeski and Ellen Hamilton for Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region of the World Bank

2006 Internationaler Vergleich von Kosten und Dienstleistungseffizienz bei der Transaktion von Wohneigentum in Deutschland, mit empirica fur Bundesinstitut Bau-, Stadt- und Raumforschung

2003 A historical comment on US housing subsidies including Fannie & Freddie contingent fiscal cost. Just replace figures.

2003 Wohnbaufoerderung in Mitteleuropa - housing policy in Central Europe, Neuer Wissenschaftlicher Verlag Wien  english summary

2002 Housing Finance for Returnees in West Bank Baza, for World Bank. Those were the days after Oslo when we discussed returning Palestinian refugees even from Lebanon and Jordan into WBG - and Israel. Tempi passati, as the radicals have taken over.

Rental housing experts note the chart on page 7 in the annex showing the devastating results of different cohorts of rent controls in WBG.

 2000 Separating Homeownership Subsidies from Finance - Recent Reform Experiences and Lessons for Subsidy Reform, Land and Real Estate Initiative (LARI) research papers, World Bank